A practical framework on how new technologies attain popularity emphasizes creating high-value, low-friction products and cultivating ecosystems that cater to passionate users and creators.
The diffusion of new technology is governed by the equation Usage = Value - Friction, suggesting that the frequency of a product's use depends on its derived value reduced by the inherent friction, such as costs or inconvenience. The overall willingness to pay for a product can be equated to its personal value subtracted by the associated costs.
Value is identified as a sum of Utility (functional benefit), Emotion (positive feelings), and Social Status (perception by others), where products may command higher prices not solely due to their utility but also due to the emotional satisfaction and status they confer to users.
The text argues that successful products blend novelty with familiarity to evoke emotions, thereby maximizing engagement. Emotion is pegged as a product of Surprise and Connection. It also underlines the exponential nature of value in social products, where sharing can precipitate a cascade of usage, augmenting its utility, emotional appeal, and social status.
The best users for a product are the creators themselves and the enthusiasts who provide valuable feedback. Meanwhile, the masses, resistant to changing habits and cautious on spending, are seen as a low priority. For ecosystems, an open and free structure is preferred to enhance innovation and accessibility, though open and paid models retain a high level of quality.
The best creators are compared to cutting-edge enthusiasts, distinct from the conservative mainstream entities or uninspired masses. The text concludes by advocating the building of technologies driven by personal use and passion, enabling enthusiast creators and minimizing barriers to use and creation.