He Predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Now… | NYT Opinion

The Nugget

Allan Lichtman's prediction model, based on 13 key questions about presidential performance, suggests Kamala Harris will likely win the 2024 election, despite concerns over Biden's policies and age. The model has accurately predicted past elections, suggesting it remains a reliable method for forecasting political outcomes.

Make it stick

🎯 Allan Lichtman depends on 13 keys to predict election outcomes, ignoring polls.
🔑 Two keys are related to the candidates; the rest focus on broader political dynamics.
📈 A true key indicates a positive condition for the incumbent party, while a false key favors their opponent.
🏁 Lichtman foresees Kamala Harris winning the presidency based on his keys.

Midterm Performance: The White House party gained House seats (False for Democrats).
Incumbency: The sitting president is running for re-election (False due to Biden's withdrawal).
Primary Contest: The White House party avoided a primary contest (True; Democrats united behind Harris).
Third-party Challenger: No significant third-party challenger (True; R.F.K. Jr. dropped out).
Short-term Economy: The economy is strong (True).
Long-term Economic Growth: Growth has outpaced the previous two terms (True).
Major National Policy Changes: The White House has made significant policy changes (True).
Social Unrest: There has been no sustained social unrest (True).
Scandal: The White House is untainted by scandal (True).
Charismatic Candidate: The incumbent party's candidate must be broadly inspiring (False for Harris).
Challenger's Charisma: The challenger should be uncharismatic (True for Trump).
Foreign Policy: Still uncertain, with two keys left that could flip based on evolving international dynamics.

If all keys except those relating to foreign policy favor the Democrats, Harris can secure a win.
Lichtman emphasizes the importance of voter turnout, reminding that the outcome ultimately relies on public involvement.

"Allan Lichtman’s model hinges on 13 keys developed in 1981, which assess the strength of the incumbent party."
"A false key is good for Trump, while a true key benefits the Democrats."
"Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States."
"The keys absolutely will work. They are the constant northern star of political prediction."
"The outcome is up to you. So get out and vote."

This summary contains AI-generated information and may have important inaccuracies or omissions.