The Nugget
- The State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) may be the best intelligence agency in DC, often getting major predictions right when others don't, despite being tiny and having a small budget.
Make it stick
- 🎯 INR is dubbed the "Cassandra of American intelligence" for its accurate predictions that were often ignored.
- 🧠 INR's success can be attributed to true experts, individual analyses, and close collaboration with policymakers.
Key insights
INR's Successful Predictions
- INR predicted South Vietnam's failure against the Viet Cong insurgency in 1961, Iraq's lack of nuclear weapons in 2002, and Ukraine's resilience against Russia in 2022.
- The bureau remained accurate on significant predictions despite being a small agency with less funding compared to the CIA and DIA.
INR's Unique Approach
- Analyst Expertise: INR recruits heavily from Ph.D. programs and professors, leading to true experts with an average of 14 years of experience on their subject.
- Individual Analyses: INR's small size allows for individual analyst reports, less groupthink, and clearer perspectives.
- Close Collaboration: Working alongside State Department policymakers gives INR constant feedback on the type of information that is most useful.
INR's Evolution and Culture
- INR is evolving under new leadership to adapt to technological advancements and growing staff.
- The agency's flat structure, longevity of analysts on their topics, and close collaboration with policymakers have been crucial to its success.
- INR's unique culture values independence, contrarian views, and dissent, leading to accurate predictions and insightful analyses.
Key quotes
- "You can get other intel agencies really upset about this when you point this out, but I've got to tell you, INR is almost always right." - Ellen McCarthy
- "INR is the gadflies of the intelligence community, being kind of snitty." - Stephen Coulthart
- "They're proud of dissent and particularly proud of dissent when they get it right." - Rod Schoonover
This summary contains AI-generated information and may have important inaccuracies or omissions.