Pollster Quality and Accuracy

Pollsters, according to FiveThirtyEight's recent update, differ significantly in their accuracy and reliability. This discrepancy can be attributed to their historical errors and tendencies to favor a particular party consistently. The evaluation of pollsters takes into consideration both their track records across numerous elections and their openness about their methodologies. This comprehensive approach helps identify which pollsters consistently provide more accurate predictions compared to the field.

Methodologies and Polling Averages

Different methodologies can yield different polling averages. For instance, The Economist uses a methodology that prioritizes sample size and the recency of polls, leading to a 2.3-point lead for Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden in national polls. This contrasts with an unweighted average, where older polls have the same importance as recent ones, showing a narrower 0.2-point lead for Mr. Biden. This disparity highlights how the choice of methodology can significantly affect the interpretation of polling data.

The Impact of Pollster Quality

The quality of a pollster, as evaluated by FiveThirtyEight, has a noticeable impact on the reported size of Mr. Trump’s lead. High-quality pollsters tend to show more accurate and reliable results, which can vary significantly from the averages reported by pollsters with lower ratings. This underlines the importance of considering both the quality and the methodology of polling organizations when interpreting election polls.